MASSACHUSETTS – AT 7:46 A.M. ET:  Massachusetts votes a week from today to fill the Senate seat left vacant by the death of Edward M. Kennedy. 

Suddenly there's enormous focus on the race, primarily because one poll, and only one, has the spirited Republican challenger, Scott Brown, a point ahead of the Democratic "shoo-in," state Attorney General Martha Coakley.  Dreams are floating through the conservative blogosphere.

Look, no one wants an upset more than I do, but let's be careful here.  Dream, yes.  Plan, no.  Virtually all pollsters agree that it's an uphill battle for Brown.  The betting is still on Martha Coakley, a cookie-cutter Massachusetts liberal who's never had a dissenting thought in her head.  She thinks it's just ducky to try terrorists in civilian courts, and said just last night that there are no terrorists in Afghanistan.  You get the picture.

Massachusetts is a bright blue state.  It glows blue.  This is a special election, not a November election, so the campaign is short.  Coakley is well known.  Brown is an unknown state senator, and the shortness of the race makes it tough for him to get name recognition.  Coakley has a lot of money, although Brown is now raking it in.  Coakley has the Kennedy family, Massachusetts royalty, in her corner.  She has to work to lose this election, although she seems at times to be working very hard.

That one poll showing Brown ahead, and another showing Coakley with only a nine-point lead, has energized the Dems, who are starting to pour firepower into the contest.  Their latest gimmick is to try to tie Brown to Sarah Palin.

As Scott Rasmussen wrote yesterday, the problem with polling in a special election is that it's very difficult to predict turnout, which is the key to victory.  The race is volatile.  There are no new poll results that we know of.  I suspect there'll be two or three later this week.

So, dream well, but don't be crushed if Brown only gets close.  This is a huge mountain, and he's climbing it.  But there's so little time.

January 12,  2010